| 夏子惠,古丽娜尔·玉素甫.“一带一路”沿线国家外商直接投资对中国碳排放的影响研究[J].唐山学院学报,2026,39(3):64-75 |
| “一带一路”沿线国家外商直接投资对中国碳排放的影响研究 |
| Study on the Impact of Inward Foreign Direct Investment from Countries along the “Belt and Road” on China’s Carbon Emissions |
| 投稿时间：2026-02-11 |
| DOI：10.16160/j.cnki.tsxyxb.2026.03.010 |
| 中文关键词: “一带一路”沿线国家 外商直接投资 碳排放 抑制效应 促进效应 净效应 |
| 英文关键词: countries along the “Belt and Road” inward foreign direct investment(IFDI) carbon emissions inhibitory effect promotional effect net effect |
| 基金项目:国家社会科学基金项目(16BJL101);新疆社会科学基金项目(19BJL028);自治区高校本科教育教学研究和改革综合项目(XJGXJGZH-2024016) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 在高水平对外开放与"双碳"目标协同推进的背景下,探究外商直接投资(IFDI)对中国碳排放的影响已成为学术界关注的焦点。文章基于Copeland-Taylor理论,运用2014-2022年中国30个省级面板数据,结合"一带一路"沿线国家IFDI流入情况,通过双固定效应模型、双边随机前沿模型和内生机制模型,构建了IFDI对中国碳排放的"直接影响—效应分解—影响机制"的系统性研究框架。基准回归结果表明,IFDI总体上显著抑制中国碳排放;效应分解分析表明,IFDI对中国碳排放的影响表现为抑制效应(占比78.60%)与促进效应(占比21.40%)共存,两者相互抵消后的净效应表现为抑制碳排放;异质性分析显示,在高工业化省份、胡焕庸线以东省份以及自贸区省份,IFDI的碳排放抑制作用尤为突出;影响机制分析揭示,产业规模扩张、技术创新、产业结构升级是IFDI影响碳排放的重要传导渠道。基于此,针对性地提出了对策建议。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Against the backdrop of coordinated advancement of high-level opening-up and the "dual carbon" goals, investigating the impact of inward foreign direct investment(IFDI) on China’s carbon emissions has become a focal point in academic research. Based on the Copeland-Taylor framework, this study employs provincial panel data of 30 Chinese provinces spanning from 2014 to 2022, along with IFDI inflows from countries along "Belt and Road", and constructs a systematic research framework encompassing "direct impact-effect decomposition-influence mechanisms" using a dual fixed-effects model, a bilateral stochastic frontier model, and an endogenous mechanism model. The benchmark regression results indicate that IFDI generally exerts a significant inhibitory effect on China’s carbon emissions. Effect decomposition reveals that the impact of IFDI on China’s carbon emissions manifests as a coexistence of inhibitory effects (accounting for 78.60%) and promotional effects (accounting for 21.40%), with the net effect after mutual offsetting showing a inhibition of carbon emissions. Heterogeneity analysis demonstrates that the carbon emission inhibition effect of IFDI is particularly prominent in provinces with high industrialization levels, those east of the Hu Huanyong Line, and those with pilot free trade zone provinces. Mechanism analysis reveals that industrial scale expansion, technological innovation and industrial structure upgrading are significant transmission channels affecting carbon emissions. Based on these findings, targeted countermeasures are proposed. |
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